Professor Alan Brennan
BSc (London), MSc (London), PhD (91Ö±²¥)
Population Health, School of Medicine and Population Health
Professor of Health Economics and Decision Modelling
+44 114 222 0684
Full contact details
Population Health, School of Medicine and Population Health
Regent Court (ScHARR)
30 Regent Street
91Ö±²¥
S1 4DA
- Profile
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I am Professor of Health Economics and Decision Modelling at ScHARR, University of 91Ö±²¥, England.
I studied for BSc Mathematics at Imperial College London and then MSc Operational Research at the London School of Economics before joining the NHS to work in and then lead the Trent Operational Research Unit. Since 1994 I have been leading the modelling team at ScHARR.
I lead a large group of around 35 academic staff, undertaking methodological and applied research and consultancy using mathematical modelling in health and healthcare.
I have been developing and applying modelling in support of healthcare decision-making nationally and internationally, across a large range of diseases, interventions, service planning and policy issues for over 25 years. Together we have now built a large, high-quality team of around 35 or more health economic modelling researchers.
I am a regular expert on several panels, providing input to the design of phase III studies from an economic/NICE perspective, usually for global pharmaceutical and device manufacturers.
I lead programmes of research on mathematical modelling in health and healthcare focusing on health economics and decision modelling.
I lead and contribute to the strategic development of research collaborations and programmes within the University, the White Rose, nationally and internationally for funders including NIH (US), MRC, ESRC, NICE, DH and EU.
I undertake substantial applied research/consultancy with healthcare organisations around public health, service development and policy, and with the pharmaceutical industry in the UK and internationally on the cost-effectiveness of interventions.
I contribute to PhD and Masters programmes in ScHARR including the and working on new courses and curriculum development around MSc Health Economics and Decision Modelling, and the online course MSc International Health Technology Assessment and Reimbursement.
- Research interests
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My fundamental interest is in mathematical modelling approaches to inform decision making in health and healthcare.
I am currently principal investigator or co-investigator involved in over 19 research programmes and projects. Current government / national policy research.
Alcohol Policy
I have been involved in modelling alcohol behaviours and policy since 2008, when we began a programme of research for UK research bodies and policy makers. With Prof Meier, we have developed the 91Ö±²¥ Alcohol Research Group, a leading international centre for alcohol policy and epidemiological modelling research. Our work has influenced government policy on minimum unit pricing for alcohol; shaping and informing policy in UK, Scotland, Canada, Wales, EU Commission, and Republic of Ireland.Public Health - Health Economics and Decision Modelling
I am co-applicant (Health Economics and Decision Modelling leader) on large research grants for the and the .I have a wider portfolio of public health work including work around screening and prevention of diabetes, linking smoking and alcohol behaviours and developing a joint smoking and alcohol policy analysis model, encouraging behaviours in physical activity and general lifestyle risk reductions. This entire programme relates to the central methodological interest which is in developing and using novel mathematical modelling approaches to support and inform decision making around health and healthcare for international impact.
Health Technology Assessment
I have been heavily involved in health technology assessment and health economic evaluation of pharmaceuticals and interventions for both government bodies in the UK eg and internationally, and also with the pharmaceutical industry.
I direct a programme of research in Health Economic Modelling / Health Technology Assessment which involves a large team of modelling staff and their collaborators. We are recognized as a leading national and international centre for HTA modelling research. I have been involved in direct leadership of over 30 research projects within the last five years, working closely with ScHARR-TAG and DSU.
- Publications
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Show: Featured publications All publications
Featured publications
Journal articles
- . Value in Health.
- . Addiction.
- . Trials, 21(1).
- . Health Education and Behavior.
- . Addiction.
- . Population Health Metrics, 18(1).
- . PharmacoEconomics, 38(2), 193-204.
- . Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs Supplement(Sup 18), 96-109.
- . BMJ Open, 8(4).
- . PharmacoEconomics, 35(12), 1287-1296.
- . J Public Health (Oxf), 38(4), 679-687.
- . International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care, 32(4), 203-211.
- . PLoS One, 11(9), e0160666-e0160666.
- . BMC Public Health, 16(1).
- . Health and Place, 41, 11-18.
- . BMC Public Health, 16:535.
- . PLOS Medicine, 13(2), e1001963-e1001963.
- . British Journal of General Practice, 66(642), e1-e9.
- . Health Economics (United Kingdom), 24(11), 1468-1482.
- . Medical Decision Making, 35(5), 570-583.
- . Addiction, 109(12), 1994-2002.
- . BMJ, 349.
- . Lancet, 383(9929), 1655-1664.
- . J Health Econ, 34, 96-103.
- . Medical Decision Making, 32(5), 701-711.
- . Lancet, 375(9723), 1355-1364.
- . Health Econ, 16(11), 1205-1225.
- . Rheumatology (Oxford), 46(8), 1345-1354.
- . Med Decis Making, 27(4), 448-470.
- . J Health Econ, 26(1), 122-148.
- . Health Econ, 15(12), 1295-1310.
- . Health Technology Assessment, 19(33), 1-80.
All publications
Journal articles
- . The Lancet, 404, S13-S13.
- . European Journal of Public Health, 34(Supplement_3).
- . BMC Public Health, 24(1).
- . The Lancet Public Health.
- . Value in Health.
- . Value in Health.
- . Diabetes Care, 47(7), 1239-1239.
- . BMC Public Health, 24.
- . BMJ Open, 14(3), e076704-e076704.
- . Environmental Modelling & Software, 173, 105959-105959.
- . Value in Health, 26(12), S544-S544.
- . Drug and Alcohol Review.
- . International Journal of Drug Policy, 122, 104247-104247.
- . The Lancet, 402, S75-S75.
- . Appetite, 189, 106933-106933.
- . Appetite, 189, 106907-106907.
- . Public Health, 220, 43-49.
- . Health Economics.
- . Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 26(2).
- . Addiction.
- . The Lancet Public Health, 7(10), e866-e875.
- . BMJ Open Diabetes Research and Care, 10(4).
- . International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity, 19.
- . Diabetic Medicine.
- . BMJ Open, 12(4), e058103.
- . Drug and Alcohol Review.
- . BMC Public Health, 22(1).
- . BMJ Open, 12(2).
- . JMIR Form Res, 6(1), e31801.
- . Medical Decision Making.
- . Health Technology Assessment, 25(77).
- . Addictive Behaviors, 107094-107094.
- . Radiotherapy and Oncology.
- . BMC Medicine, 19.
- . British Journal of Cancer.
- . Drug and Alcohol Review.
- . British Journal of Surgery, 108(3), 315-325.
- . Drug and Alcohol Review.
- . Public Health Research, 9(4).
- . European Journal of Cancer, 144, 269-280.
- . Value in Health.
- . European Journal of Cancer, 142, 48-62.
- . Public Health, 189, 48-53.
- . Public Health Research, 8(14).
- . Value in Health.
- . Health Services and Delivery Research, 8(24).
- . Complexity, 2020.
- . Value in Health, 23(6), 743-750.
- . Health Technology Assessment, 24(28).
- . Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 23(3).
- . Value in Health.
- . BMJ Open, 10(4).
- . BMJ Open Diabetes Research & Care, 8(1).
- . Addiction.
- . Trials, 21(1).
- . Statistical Methods in Medical Research.
- . Journal of Public Health.
- . Health Education and Behavior.
- . Addiction.
- . Diabetic Medicine.
- . Addiction.
- . Population Health Metrics, 18(1).
- . PharmacoEconomics, 38(2), 193-204.
- . Medical Decision Making.
- . Wellcome Open Research, 4.
- . Oral Presentations.
- . Energy Policy, 130, 206-217.
- . BMJ Open, 9(6).
- . Addiction, 114(4), 607-608.
- . Value in Health.
- . Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs Supplement(Sup 18), 96-109.
- . BMC Medical Research Methodology, 19.
- . European Journal of Public Health, 29(2), 219-225.
- . Addiction, 113(12), 2225-2232.
- . Alcohol and Alcoholism, 53(5), 548-559.
- . Addiction.
- . Journal of Medical Economics, 21(7), 666-675.
- . Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 72(9), 864-864.
- . PLoS ONE, 13(5).
- . Value in Health.
- . BMJ Open, 8(4).
- . BMJ Open, 8(2), e019467-e019467.
- . Addiction, 113(2), 203-204.
- . Addiction, 113(2), 372-373.
- . PharmacoEconomics, 35(12), 1287-1296.
- . BMJ, 359.
- . PharmacoEconomics, 35(10), 989-1006.
- . Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 71, 912-918.
- . PharmacoEconomics, 35(9), 937-949.
- . BMJ Open, 7.
- . Diabetic Medicine, 34(8), 1136-1144.
- . Health & Place.
- . Alcohol and Alcoholism, 52(3), 372-381.
- . Diabetic Medicine, 34(5), 632-640.
- . International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 4.
- . Addiction, 112(5), 808-817.
- . Health Technology Assessment, 21(20), 1-278.
- . European Journal of Public Health, 27(2), 345-351.
- . BMJ, 356.
- . Addiction Science & Clinical Practice, 12(S1).
- . J Public Health (Oxf), 38(4), 679-687.
- . Medical Decision Making, 36(8), 1020-1033.
- . Journal of Public Health & Epidemiology, 8(10), 191-203.
- . International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care, 32(4), 203-211.
- . PLoS One, 11(9), e0160666-e0160666.
- . BMC Public Health, 16(1).
- . Health and Place, 41, 11-18.
- . Addiction, 111(9), 1616-1627.
- . Addiction, 111(9), 1568-1579.
- . Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, jech-2016-207753-jech-2016-207753.
- . PharmacoEconomics, 34(8), 815-827.
- . BMC Public Health, 16:535.
- . Value in Health, 19(4), 404-412.
- . Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 70(3), 231-237.
- . PLOS Medicine, 13(2), e1001963-e1001963.
- . Annals of Operations Research, 236(1), 149-176.
- . British Journal of General Practice, 66(642), e1-e9.
- . Public Health, 132, 40-49.
- . Diabetic Medicine, 33(8), 1155-1163.
- . Diabetic Medicine, 33(2), 192-203.
- . Diabetic Medicine, 33(2), 243-251.
- . Trials, 16.
- . Health Economics (United Kingdom), 24(11), 1468-1482.
- . Medical Decision Making, 35(7), 872-887.
- . Health Economics, 24(10), 1368-1388.
- . Medical Decision Making, 35(5), 570-583.
- . Pilot and Feasibility Studies, 1(1).
- . Rheumatology, 54(4), 623-632.
- . Addiction, 109(12), 1994-2002.
- . The Lancet, 384, S52-S52.
- . Drug and Alcohol Review, 33(6), 596-603.
- . Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice, 106(3), 443-450.
- . BMJ, 349.
- . Drug and Alcohol Review, 33(5), 515-525.
- . Diabet Med, 31(7), 847-853.
- . Acta Veterinaria Scandinavica, 563-563.
- . Appl Health Econ Health Policy, 12(3), 239-253.
- . Lancet, 383(9929), 1655-1664.
- . Medical Decision Making, 34(3), 311-326.
- . Diabet Med, 31(4), 477-486.
- . J Health Econ, 34, 96-103.
- . BMC Fam Pract, 15, 26.
- . Addiction, 109(2), 206-215.
- . BMC Public Health, 14(1).
- . Proceedings of the 2014 conference on Genetic and evolutionary computation - GECCO '14.
- . Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 134(1), 136-143.
- . Trials, 14(S1).
- . Trials, 14(S1).
- . Health Technol Assess, 17(32), 1-vi.
- A theory-based online intervention to promote health behaviour in new university students: One-month follow-up data. PSYCHOLOGY & HEALTH, 28, 132-132.
- The cost-effectiveness of Dose Adjustment for Normal Eating (DAFNE) structured education in Type 1 diabetes: an update using the 91Ö±²¥ Type 1 diabetes policy model. DIABETIC MEDICINE, 30, 133-134.
- . Alcohol Alcohol, 48(2), 241-249.
- . DIABETIC MEDICINE, 30(10), 1236-1244.
- . Alcohol Alcohol, 48(2), 180-188.
- . BMJ Open, 3(1).
- Innovation in Health Economic Modelling of Service Improvements for Longer-Term Depression: Demonstration in a Local Health Community. JOURNAL OF MENTAL HEALTH POLICY AND ECONOMICS, 16, S34-S35.
- . BMJ Open, 3(9), e003250.
- . Value in Health.
- . BMC Health Serv Res, 13, 150.
- . BMC Public Health, 13, 107.
- . Eur J Health Econ, 14(6), 887-899.
- . Value Health, 15(8), 1127-1136.
- . Medical Decision Making, 32(5), 701-711.
- . Health Technol Assess, 16(33), 1-iv.
- . Value in Health, 15(6), 821-827.
- . Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 123(1-3), 7-14.
- . Rheumatology (Oxford), 50 Suppl 4, iv26-iv31.
- . Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 65(Suppl 1), A47-A47.
- . Med Decis Making, 31(6), 839-852.
- . Int J Geriatr Psychiatry, 26(5), 483-494.
- . BRIT MED J, 341.
- . MED DECIS MAKING, 30(3), E20-E22.
- . J Health Econ, 29(3), 468-477.
- . INT J CARDIOL, 140(3), 315-322.
- . Lancet, 375(9723), 1355-1364.
- . Addiction, 105(3), 400-401.
- . Addiction, 105(3), 383-393.
- . BMJ, 341, c4093.
- . Med Decis Making, 29(6), 678-689.
- . Aktuelle Neurologie, 36(S 02).
- . Aktuelle Neurologie, 36(S 02).
- . PHARM STAT, 8(4), 371-389.
- . Int J Technol Assess Health Care, 25(4), 470-478.
- . PHARM STAT, 8(2), 150-162.
- . Alzheimer's & Dementia, 4, T455-T455.
- . RHEUMATOLOGY, 47(7), 1107-1107.
- . BJOG-INT J OBSTET GY, 115(6), 749-757.
- . Arthritis Rheum, 58(4), 939-946.
- . Value Health, 11(2), 160-171.
- . Health Econ, 16(11), 1205-1225.
- . Rheumatology (Oxford), 46(8), 1345-1354.
- . RHEUMATOLOGY, 46(7), 1140-1147.
- . Med Decis Making, 27(4), 448-470.
- . Med Decis Making, 27(4), 491-499.
- . Obes Rev, 8(4), 363-371.
- . DIABETES CARE, 30(6), 1638-1646.
- Screening for type 2 diabetes: literature review and economic modelling. HEALTH TECHNOL ASSES, 11(17), 1-+.
- . STAT MED, 26(6), 1237-1254.
- Screening for type 2 diabetes: Literature review and economic modelling. Health Technology Assessment, 11(17).
- . J Health Econ, 26(1), 122-148.
- . Value Health, 10(1), 32-41.
- . Eur J Health Econ, 7(4), 276-284.
- . Health Econ, 15(12), 1295-1310.
- Accurate, practical and cost-effective assessment of carotid stenosis in the UK. HEALTH TECHNOL ASSES, 10(30), 1-+.
- . Rheumatology (Oxford), 45(8), 1029-1038.
- . Int J Cardiol, 109(3), 307-316.
- A prognostic model for functional outcome in early rheumatoid arthritis. Journal of Rheumatology, 33(8), 1503-1510.
- Accurate, practical and cost-effective assessment of carotid stenosis in the UK. Health Technology Assessment, 10(30).
- . Health Serv Manage Res, 18(4), 265-276.
- . Expert Rev Pharmacoecon Outcomes Res, 5(5), 519-529.
- . Ann Rheum Dis, 64(7), 995-1002.
- The Authors' Reply. PharmacoEconomics, 23(8), 853-853.
- . PharmacoEconomics, 23(8), 851-853.
- Incorporation of uncertainty in health economic modelling studies - The authors' reply. PHARMACOECONOMICS, 23(8), 853-853.
- . RHEUMATOLOGY, 44(1), 3-4.
- . Pharmacoeconomics, 23(6), 529-536.
- . Appl Health Econ Health Policy, 4(4), 201-208.
- . Drugs, 65(4), 473-496.
- . Curr Med Res Opin, 21(1), 101-112.
- . RHEUMATOLOGY, 43(5), 677-678.
- THE COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF ADALIMUMAB (HUMIRA (TM)) IN PATIENTS WITH RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS: A UK ANALYSIS. RHEUMATOLOGY, 43, 77-77.
- WHICH PATIENTS WITH EARLY RA DEVELOP FAST PROGRESSIVE DISEASE? PROGNOSTIC FACTORS FOR SEVERE FUNCTIONAL LOSS FROM AN INCEPTION COHORT WITH 9 YEAR FOLLOW UP. RHEUMATOLOGY, 43, 137-137.
- . Rheumatology (Oxford), 43(1), 62-72.
- . Med Decis Making, 24(1), 9-19.
- . J Health Serv Res Policy, 8(1), 18-24.
- . Eur J Health Econ, 4(3), 239-240.
- . Journal of Health Services Research & Policy, 8(1), 18-24.
- The role of modelling in prioritising and planning clinical trials.. Health technology assessment (Winchester, England), 7(23).
- MODELLING THE COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF ETANERCEPT IN ADULTS WITH RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS IN THE UK. RHEUMATOLOGY, 41, 91-91.
- . Vaccine, 20(13-14), 1778-1786.
- . J Epidemiol Community Health, 55(7), 521-527.
- . Injury, 32(4), 267-274.
- . Pharmacoeconomics, 17(5), 445-459.
- . Addiction.
- . BMC Primary Care, 25(1).
- Identifying preferred features of weight loss programmes for adults with, or at risk of, type 2 diabetes: a discrete choice experiment with 3,960 adults in the UK. Diabetes Care.
- . Tobacco Control.
- A cost-effectiveness analysis of two interventions to promote physical activity in a multi-ethnic population at high risk of diabetes: an economic evaluation of the 48 month PROPELS Randomised Controlled Trial. BMJ Open Diabetes Research and Care.
- . NIHR Open Research, 3, 26-26.
- . NIHR Open Research, 3, 26-26.
- . JMIR Diabetes, 8, e42100-e42100.
- . NIHR Open Research, 3.
- . Tobacco Prevention & Cessation, 9(Supplement).
- . International Journal of Alcohol and Drug Research.
- . Quality of Life Research.
- . Programme Grants for Applied Research, 10(6), 1-114.
- . Medical Decision Making, 0272989X2110654-0272989X2110654.
- . Addiction.
- . Tobacco Control.
- . Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health.
- .
- . Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 18(3).
- . Programme Grants for Applied Research, 2(5), 1-188.
- . International Journal of Microsimulation, 13(2), 21-60.
- Mechanisms of action in a behavioural weight-management programme: Latent growth curve analysis. Annals of Behavioral Medicine.
- What are the cost-savings and health benefits of improving detection and management for six high cardiovascular risk conditions in England? An economic evaluation. BMJ Open.
- . Wellcome Open Research, 6, 6-6.
- . Health Technology Assessment, 19(33), 1-80.
- . Addiction.
- The impact of including costs and outcomes of dementia in a health economic model to evaluate lifestyle interventions to prevent diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Medical Decision Making.
- . Emergency Medicine Journal.
- Conceptualising changes to tobacco and alcohol policy as affecting a single interlinked system. BMC Public Health.
- . BMJ Open.
- . The European Journal of Health Economics.
- . Addiction.
- . Addiction.
Chapters
- , Value of Information for Healthcare Decision-Making (pp. 251-263).
- , Value of Information for Healthcare Decision-Making (pp. 251-264). Chapman and Hall/CRC
- Supporting purchasing in acute specialties in the trent region, Controlling Costs: Strategic Issues in Health Care Management (pp. 118-130).
- Chapman and Hall/CRC
Conference proceedings papers
- . SSM Annual Scientific Meeting (pp A63.1-A63)
- . SSM Annual Scientific Meeting
- PUBLIC HEALTH ECONOMIC MODELLING IN EVALUATIONS OF SALT AND ALCOHOL POLICIES: A SCOPING REVIEW. VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 26(12) (pp S544-S544)
- Diabetes Education and Behavioral Weight Management for Type 2 Diabetes: A Randomized Controlled Trial. OBESITY, Vol. 31 (pp 47-48)
- WHEN IS A SIMPLE MODEL GOOD ENOUGH? TOWARDS GREATER USE OF FORMAL METHODS FOR EVALUATING STRUCTURAL UNCERTAINTY IN COST-EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS. VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 25(7) (pp S350-S351)
- . The Lancet, Vol. 398(Supplement 2) (pp S53-S53). Virtual conference, 25 November 2021 - 25 November 2021.
- . The Lancet, Vol. 398(Supplement 2) (pp 23-23). Virtual conference, 26 November 2021 - 26 November 2021.
- . The Lancet, Vol. 398 (pp S27-S27)
- . Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases, Vol. 80(Suppl 1) (pp 617.2-618)
- . Medical Decision Making, Vol. 40(1) (pp E1-E379)
- PRACTICAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE EFFICIENT COMPUTATION OF THE EXPECTED VALUE OF SAMPLE INFORMATION TO PRIORITIZE RESEARCH IN HEALTH CARE. MEDICAL DECISION MAKING, Vol. 40(1) (pp E63-E64)
- METHODS FOR CHOOSING THE BEST DESIGN OF A CLINICAL TRIAL: IMPLEMENTING EXPECTED VALUE OF SAMPLE INFORMATION AND ADJUSTING FOR BIAS INDUCED BY A GROUP SEQUENTIAL DESIGN. MEDICAL DECISION MAKING, Vol. 40(1) (pp E188-E189)
- . The Lancet, Vol. 394 (pp S54-S54). London, UK, 29 November 2019 - 29 November 2019.
- . Value in Health, Vol. 22 (pp S584-S584)
- . Value in Health, Vol. 22 (pp S577-S577)
- . European Journal of Public Health, Vol. 29(Supplement_4)
- . The Lancet, Vol. 394 (pp S51-S51)
- . The Lancet, Vol. 394 (pp S35-S35)
- . Trials, Vol. 20(Supplement 1) (pp 99-99). Brighton, UK, 6 October 2019 - 9 October 2019.
- . Trials, Vol. 20(Supplement 1) (pp 109-109). Brighton, UK, 6 October 2019 - 9 October 2019.
- . Proceedings of the Genetic and Evolutionary Computation Conference
- ALCOHOL POLICY MODELING USING THEORY - A NEW COMPUTATIONAL PLATFORM FOR DEVELOPING MECHANISM-BASED EXPLANATORY MODELS. ALCOHOLISM-CLINICAL AND EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH, Vol. 43 (pp 142A-142A)
- SYNTHESIZING THE RATIONAL ADDICTION AND MYOPIC CHOICE ECONOMIC MODELS TO EXPLAIN POPULATION ALCOHOL USE AND UNDERSTAND PRICING POLICIES: AN AGENT-BASED SIMULATION. ALCOHOLISM-CLINICAL AND EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH, Vol. 43 (pp 141A-141A)
- . Value in Health, Vol. 22 (pp S374-S374)
- PRETRIAL MODELLING METHODS TO JUSTIFY AND INFORM THE DESIGN OF LARGE RCTS - EXPECTED VALUE OF SAMPLE INFORMATION FOR THE DAFNEPLUS DIABETES EDUCATION CLUSTER RCT. VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 22 (pp S584-S584)
- A HEALTH ECONOMIC AND DECISION MODELLING ANALYSIS PLAN FOR AN INTEGRATED DATABASE OF OVER 100 CLINICAL TRIALS MEASURING HYPOGLYCAEMIC ATTACKS FOR PEOPLE WITH DIABETES: A HEDMAP FOR HYPORESOLVE. VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 22 (pp S577-S577)
- A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR MODELING ALCOHOL USE DYNAMICS OVER OPULATION HEALTH TIME HORIZONS. ALCOHOLISM-CLINICAL AND EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH, Vol. 42 (pp 331A-331A)
- PLATFORM FOR CALIBRATED, SYSTEM-BASED MODELS OF ALCOHOL USE DYNAMICS. ALCOHOLISM-CLINICAL AND EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH, Vol. 42 (pp 331A-331A)
- . Value in Health, Vol. 21 (pp S206-S206)
- . Value in Health, Vol. 20(9) (pp A776-A776)
- A comparison of approaches to model migraine day frequency in migraine. CEPHALALGIA, Vol. 37 (pp 102-103)
- MODELING MIGRAINE DAY FREQUENCY USING THE BETA-BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION: A CASE STUDY OF ERENUMAB AS MIGRAINE PROPHYLAXIS. VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 20(5) (pp A329-A329)
- PARAMETRIC MODELLING OF MIGRAINE DAY FREQUENCY IN MIGRAINE PREVENTION: A CASE STUDY OF ERENUMAB CLINICAL TRIAL DATA. VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 20(9) (pp A733-A733)
- NOVEL BIOLOGICS VERSUS CONVENTIONAL PREVENTIVE THERAPIES IN MIGRAINE: A FRAMEWORK FOR ECONOMIC EVALUATION. VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 20(9) (pp A732-A732)
- A Systematic Review of Psychological Interventions to Improve Glycaemic Control in Type 1 Diabetes. DIABETES, Vol. 66 (pp A214-A214)
- . BMC Public Health, Vol. 17(1)
- . Value in Health, Vol. 19(7) (pp A853-A853)
- . Value in Health, Vol. 19(7) (pp A361-A361)
- . Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, Vol. 70(Suppl 1) (pp A83.1-A83)
- . The Lancet, Vol. 386 (pp S33-S33)
- . Value in Health, Vol. 18(7) (pp A725-A726)
- . Value in Health, Vol. 18(7) (pp A423-A423)
- . The Lancet, Vol. 384 (pp S51-S51)
- Minimum unit pricing for alcohol: policy appraisal modelling of income and socioeconomic group-specific effects on consumption, spending, and health harms. LANCET, Vol. 382 (pp 47-47)
- . VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 16(7) (pp A530-A530)
- . Value Health, Vol. 16(3) (pp A290). United States
- . Value Health, Vol. 16(3) (pp A29). United States
- . VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 16(3) (pp A284-A284)
- The cost-effectiveness of five week vs one week DAFNE structured education in Type 1 diabetes: a preliminary evaluation using the 91Ö±²¥ Type 1 diabetes policy model. DIABETIC MEDICINE, Vol. 30 (pp 131-131)
- . VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 15(7) (pp A360-A360)
- . VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 15(4) (pp A181-A182)
- Validation of an individual patient level simulation of the natural history of systemic Lupus erythematosus against an alternative longitudinal cohort. 2012 Operational Research Society Simulation Workshop, SW 2012 (pp 19-24)
- . VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 14(7) (pp A469-A470)
- . VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 14(7) (pp A243-A243)
- The Natural History and Predictive Factors of Long Term Outcomes in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus.. ARTHRITIS AND RHEUMATISM, Vol. 63(10) (pp S951-S951)
- MODELLING GENERAL AND TARGETED PRICE POLICY OPTIONS: ESTIMATION OF EFFECTS ON DIFFERENT SUBGROUPS OF THE POPULATION. ALCOHOLISM-CLINICAL AND EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH, Vol. 34(6) (pp 251A-251A)
- MODELLING COST EFFECTIVENESS OF BEHAVIOUR MODIFICATION PROGRAMMES AND EFFECTS ON MEDICATION: CASE STUDY OF EDUCATION PROGRAMMES IN DIABETES. VALUE HEALTH, Vol. 13(3) (pp A59-A59)
- Cost effectiveness of the DESMOND structured education programme for patients newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. DIABETOLOGIA, Vol. 52 (pp S12-S12)
- ESTIMATING THE COST EFFECTIVENESS IN THE UK OF VILDAGLIPTIN COMPARED TO PIOGLITAZONE AS ADD-ON THERAPY TO METFORMIN USING THE SHEFFIELD TYPE 2 DIABETES MODEL. VALUE HEALTH, Vol. 11(6) (pp A501-A501)
- Clopidogrel is cost-effective compared with aspirin in United Kingdom patients with a myocardial infarction who subsequently sustain an ischaemic stroke or peripheral arterial disease event. VALUE HEALTH, Vol. 11(3) (pp A194-A195)
- The cost-utility of exelon patch in the management of patients with moderate Alzheimer's disease in the United Kingdom. VALUE HEALTH, Vol. 10(6) (pp A384-A384)
- Economic evaluation of the use of lanthanum carbonate from an Australian perspective. NEPHROLOGY DIALYSIS TRANSPLANTATION, Vol. 22 (pp 186-186)
- Using mixed treatment comparisons and meta-regression to perform indirect comparisons to estimate the efficacy of biologic treatments in rheumatoid arthritis. VALUE HEALTH, Vol. 10(3) (pp A121-A121)
- The cost effectiveness of etanercept in patients with severe as in the UK. ANNALS OF THE RHEUMATIC DISEASES, Vol. 65 (pp 273-274)
- The cost effectiveness of anti-TNF antagonists in rheumatoid arthritis: Results from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Registry. ANNALS OF THE RHEUMATIC DISEASES, Vol. 65 (pp 179-179)
- A simple prognostic index in early rheumatoid arthritis for predicting functional outcome at 5 years follow up. RHEUMATOLOGY, Vol. 44 (pp I97-I97)
- Lanthanum carbonate for the treatment of hyperphosphataemia: Development of a cost effectiveness model. VALUE HEALTH, Vol. 7(6) (pp 805-805)
- The cost effectiveness of adalimumab (HUMIRA (R)) in patients with RA: A Finnish analysis. ANNALS OF THE RHEUMATIC DISEASES, Vol. 63 (pp 513-514)
- A prognostic model for progressive disease in early rheumatoid arthritis. ANNALS OF THE RHEUMATIC DISEASES, Vol. 63 (pp 110-110)
- The cost effectiveness of adalimumab (HUMIRA((R))) in UK patients with moderate to severe RA. ANNALS OF THE RHEUMATIC DISEASES, Vol. 63 (pp 512-513)
- Cost effectivness of obesity treatment with sibutramine in combination with diet and lifestyle advice in Germany. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF OBESITY, Vol. 28 (pp S152-S152)
- Cost-effectiveness of adalimumab (Humira (TM)) in the treatment of US patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). VALUE HEALTH, Vol. 7(3) (pp 241-241)
- Cost effectiveness of adalimumab (HUMIRA (TM), Abbott) in the treatment of patients with moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis (RA). ARTHRITIS AND RHEUMATISM, Vol. 48(9) (pp S215-S215)
- The cost-effectiveness of adalimumab (HUMIRA (TM), Abbott) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: A Swedish analysis.. ARTHRITIS AND RHEUMATISM, Vol. 48(9) (pp S611-S611)
- Identifing groups of RA patients who are fast Progressors from early clinical and radiological. ARTHRITIS AND RHEUMATISM, Vol. 48(9) (pp S110-S110)
- Costing the impact of the cancer service guidance. Journal of Clinical Excellence, Vol. 4(1 SUPPL.) (pp 209-210)
- A threshold cost-effectiveness comparison of infliximab and etanercept in adults with rheumatoid arthritis in the UK.. ARTHRITIS AND RHEUMATISM, Vol. 46(9) (pp S582-S582)
- Methods to analyse the economic benefits of a pharmacogenetic (PGt) test to predict response to biologic therapy in RA, and to prioritise further research.. ARTHRITIS AND RHEUMATISM, Vol. 46(9) (pp S92-S92)
- Modelling the cost-effectiveness of etanercept in adults with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in the UK.. ARTHRITIS AND RHEUMATISM, Vol. 44(9) (pp S157-S157)
- In rheumatoid arthritis (RA) utility calculations should be derived from EQ5D rather than SF-36 due to floor effects.. ARTHRITIS AND RHEUMATISM, Vol. 44(9) (pp S311-S311)
- . PharmacoEconomics, Vol. 17(5) (pp 443-444)
- Incorporating the COM-B model for behavior change into an agent-based model of smoking behaviors: an object-oriented design. Proceedings of the 2024 Winter Simulation Conference. Orlando, Florida, 15 December 2024 - 15 December 2024.
- . Endocrine Abstracts
- . International Journal of Integrated Care, Vol. 13(7)
- Accounting for Psychological Determinants of Treatment Response in Health Economic Simulation Models of Behavioural Interventions: A Case Study in Type 1 Diabetes. ISPOR 17th Annual International Meeting. Washington DC, June 2012.
- Using Multi-objective Grammar-based Genetic Programming to Integrate Multiple Social Theories in Agent-based Modeling. Lecture notes in computer science
Reports
- Report for the EcoNomics of Adaptive Clinical Trials (ENACT) project: Application of a Bayesian Value-Based Sequential Model of a Clinical Trial to the CACTUS and HERO Case Studies (with Guidance Material for Clinical Trials Units)
- Summary report of the Health and Labour Outcomes (HaLO) Tool
- A feasibility study for building a health and work model. Report prepared for Public Health England
- Estimates of alcohol dependence in England based on APMS 2014, including estimates of children living in a household with an adult with alcohol dependence. Prevalence, trends, and amenability to treatment
- An Evidence-Based Model for Estimating Requirements for Specialist Alcohol Treatment Capacity in England The Specialist Treatment for Alcohol Model (STreAM) Version 1.0
- Model-based appraisal of the comparative impact of Minimum Unit Pricing and taxation policies in Scotland. An adaptation of the 91Ö±²¥ Alcohol Policy Model version 3,
- Mortality and morbidity risks from alcohol consumption in the UK: Analyses using the 91Ö±²¥ Alcohol Policy Model (v.2.7) to inform the UK Chief Medical Officers’ review of the UK lower risk drinking guidelines
- A new approach to measuring drinking cultures in Britain
- Fuel Poverty: Perspectives from the front line
Posters
- Cost-Utility of the Rivastigmine Transdermal Patch in the Management of Patients with Moderate Alzheimer's Disease in the US.
- Comparing socioeconomic gradients in alcohol-related harm between the four UK countries (PHE Applied Epidemiology Scientific Meeting 18-19 March 2015).
- Using real world data to structure and populate Markov models - a case study of telemonitoring for heart failure.
- Telemonitoring after discharge with heart failure - costeffectiveness modelling of alternative service designs (2012).
- The Cost-Effectiveness of 5-week versus 1-week DAFNE Structured Education in Type 1 Diabetes: A Preliminary Evaluation Using the 91Ö±²¥ Type 1 Diabetes Policy Model (Diabetes UK Professional Conference 13-15 March 2013).
- The Cost-Effectiveness of Dose Adjustment For Normal Eating (DAFNE) Structured Education in Type 1 Diabetes: An Update using the 91Ö±²¥ Type 1 Diabetes Policy Model (Diabetes UK Professional Conference 13-15 March 2013).
- Health economic modelling of the service of care in 91Ö±²¥ for patients with long term depression.
- Modelling cost effectiveness of behaviour modification programmes and effects on medication: case study of education programmes in diabetes.
- Using Whole Disease Modelling to inform economic recommendations for the detection, diagnosis, treatment and followup of colorectal cancer.
Datasets
Other
Preprints
- Computing the Expected Value of Sample Information Efficiently: Expertise and Skills Required for Four Model-Based Methods, arXiv.
- , Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory.
- Value-Adaptive Clinical Trial Designs for Efficient Delivery of Research – Actions, Opportunities and Challenges for Publicly Funded Trials.
- .
- .
- , JMIR Publications Inc..
- Research group
- Grants
-
Current and Recent Research Grants
NIHR
- including leadership of the cross cutting theme on efficient and equitable public health systems
UK Prevention Research Programme
UK Prevention Research Programme (led by and Robin Purshouse)
US National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA)
NIHR
With results available here:- Asset bank on minimum unit pricing for each Local Authority in North of England (MUPLocal project)
Innovative Medicines Initiative
ESRC
MRC
Laura Gray MRC Skills Development Fellowship
Ines Henriques-Cadby MRC Skills Development Fellowship
Magdalena Opazo-Breton MRC Skills Development Fellowship on tobacco econometrics
NIHR (led by )
Department of Health Policy Research Programme via NIHR (led by )
NIHR Programme Grant (led by Prof Simon Heller, 91Ö±²¥)
DAFNEPlus study of muliti-component ongoing support to people with Type 1 diabetes
NHS Health Scotland (led by John Holmes, 91Ö±²¥)
MRC
. - Funding completed May 2018 but ongoing work on other grants especially and
This work has developed the 91Ö±²¥ Tobacco and Alcohol Policy Model (STAPM) led by Duncan Gillespie
NIHR (led by , Leicester)
NIHR (led by Tom Yates Leicester)
.
Public Health England
Support to Non Communicable Disease Modelling Unit
Public Health England
Health and Work - estimating the impact of 11 chronic conditions on labour market outcomes
- Professional activities and memberships
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I am a member of ,,,,,, and .
I am currently a co-editor for the journal .